Enforcement drives conservation policy impacts at the Brazilian agricultural frontier

Why do forest conservation policies work in some contexts but not in others? Here we empirically evaluate how the effectiveness of complementary conservation policy instruments layered onto command-and-control forest regulation depends on environmental law enforcement. We exploit a biome-based policy assignment rule that created policy discontinuities along the official Amazon-Cerrado boundary in Brazil. We find that Amazon-specific governance innovations are associated with reductions in forest loss, while effects on land-use intensification, measured as pasture-to-cropland conversion, are weaker and less systematic. Crucially, these effects vary depending on how intensively environmental authorities enforce the underlying forest law on the ground. Our findings highlight that complementary conservation policy instruments work best when environmental authorities let punishment follow closely on the heels of the crime.