Conflict, peace, and regional food inflation dynamics across Ethiopian market hubs

Armed conflict disrupts food markets, but less is known about how regional food inflation evolves during conflict and post-conflict recovery. This study contributes to the literature by jointly examining regional food inflation dynamics across conflict and peace while accounting for spatial heterogeneity among functionally distinct market hubs. Using monthly Food Consumer Price Index data for Ethiopia’s regions from January 2018 to December 2024, we apply a multi-phase interrupted time-series model to estimate changes in inflation trajectories following the onset of the Tigray conflict in November 2020 and the Pretoria Peace Agreement in November 2022. Regions are classified into five market hubs to examine heterogeneous responses within the national food system. The results reveal substantial variation in the magnitude and persistence of inflation dynamics across market hubs. While the conflict generated widespread inflationary pressures, the peace agreement initiated a gradual but uneven recovery, with adjustment patterns differing according to regional market functions. These findings highlight that post-conflict market reintegration is neither immediate nor uniform across space. By integrating conflict and post-conflict periods within a single analytical framework, this study provides new evidence on regional food inflation dynamics and offers policy insights for strengthening market resilience and food security in conflict-affected economies.