Toward a standard lexicon for ecological forecasting
Unprecedented environmental changes challenge our understanding of the natural world, yet critical environmental decisions are made every day. Ecological forecasting provides a mechanism to inform science‐based decision‐making amid accelerating environmental uncertainties by using foundational forecasting principles to anticipate ecological unknowns. However, as an emerging and interdisciplinary field, ecological forecasting lacks unified terminology, limiting cohesion and hindering communication across other forecasting subdisciplines. Here, we examined current use of common forecasting terms by surveying forecasting professionals ( n = 109) and synthesizing literature trends (Scopus; 1970–2025) and internet search queries (Google Trends; 2004–2024). Our results informed the development of standardized definitions for “forecast”, “prediction”, and “projection”, and illuminated a disconnect between the goal of aiding decision‐making and the inclusion of decision science in the forecasting process. This work promotes participation and growth in ecological forecasting, helping forecasters meet priority end goals by facilitating communication across forecasting disciplines and within forecasting processes.
Authors
- Mostafa Javadian (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7428-8869)
- Anna R. Sjodin (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5044-4193)
- Alyssa Willson (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2808-3402)
- Laura Super (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5259-8708)
- Jody A. Peters (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9165-1508)
- Beth M. Tuschhoff (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2567-6755)
- Cara A. Gallagher (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7094-1752)
- Gretchen L. Stokes (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4202-6527)
- Michael Dietze
- Jason S MacLachlan
- Abigail SL Lewis
- Courtney S Rieb
Institutions
- College of the Holy Cross (US)
- University of Notre Dame (US)
- Boston University (US)
- Environmental Protection Agency (US)
- Ohio Environmental Protection Agency (US)
- Pennsylvania State University (US)
- University of British Columbia (CA)
- University of Idaho (US)
- Baylor University (US)
- University of Potsdam (DE)
- Environmental Protection Agency (GH)
- Northern Arizona University (US)
- Environmental Protection Agency (IE)
- Smithsonian Environmental Research Center (US)
- University of Tennessee at Knoxville (US)
Publication Details
- Journal
- Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment
- Published
- 2026-10-13
- DOI
- https://doi.org/10.1002/fee.70078
- Primary Topic
- Forecasting Techniques and Applications
- Type
- article
- Field-Weighted Citation Impact
- 0.00
Funders
- National Science Foundation
- U.S. Environmental Protection Agency
- Division of Environmental Biology