Exports, Domestic Investment, and Demographic Pressure on Food Production in Somalia: Evidence from Long-Run and Short-Run Dynamics

Food production plays a vital role in Somalia’s food security, livelihoods, and economic development. However, the factors influencing food production remain insufficiently examined. This study investigates the effects of exports, domestic investment, and population on food production in Somalia from 1990 to 2022. The study employs the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model, supported by unit root tests, bounds testing, diagnostic tests, and Granger causality analysis. The bounds test confirms a long-run relationship among the variables. The long-run results indicate that exports and population positively and significantly influence food production, while gross fixed capital formation has a negative and significant effect. In the short run, gross fixed capital formation also negatively affects food production. The error correction term indicates that approximately 46.8% of deviations from long-run equilibrium are corrected annually. Granger causality results reveal bidirectional causality between exports and food production at the 10% significance level. Food production also Granger-causes domestic investment, while exports Granger-cause domestic investment and population. These findings highlight the importance of strengthening agricultural export markets and directing domestic investment toward productive agricultural activities. The study recommends improving market access, transport and storage infrastructure, prioritizing agricultural investment, and enhancing productivity through modern technology and efficient resource use. These measures could strengthen food production and improve food security in Somalia.