Electrification fails to reconcile urban transport with 2030 climate targets

Abstract: Paris Agreement commitments require steep cuts to transport emissions by 2030, but whether they are achievable without restricting access to essential services remains unclear. Here, we introduce a scalable framework that tests, at the individual level, whether minimum mobility needs can be met within 2030 Paris-compatible carbon budgets. We apply it to mobile phone data from over 200,000 users in Finland's largest urban regions, where low-carbon electricity offers some of the world’s most favorable conditions for electric cars. Even here, fewer than 6% can meet their minimum needs within budget by car, and full electrification raises this only to 38%. By bike almost all users meet their needs within budget; By public transport, 61–70%, though this share falls in suburbs, while higher-income areas disproportionately exceed their budgets. Meeting 2030 targets therefore requires prioritizing cycling and public transport, especially in suburban areas, rather than relying on electrification alone.