Uncorking Growth: A Qualitative System Dynamics-Based Analysis of Sparkling Wine Production in the Lombardy Region

Protected Designations of Origin (PDOs) are a cornerstone of the European wine sector, supporting quality, identity, and reputation. However, declining consumption and global competition threaten these systems, especially in mature markets. This pilot study explores how institutional design, production capacity, and strategic positioning influence regional wine competitiveness. Using a qualitative System Dynamics (SD) approach based on Causal Loop Diagram (CLD) analysis of literature and secondary data, it examines the hypothetical integration of the Franciacorta DOCG and the Oltrepò Pavese Metodo Classico DOC, two prominent Italian wine appellations in northern Lombardy, into a unified system named here “Grande Franciacorta”. The resulting CLD is hypothesis-generating and identifies hypothesized feedback mechanisms: reinforcing loops of branding, production capacity, and organizational capability, constrained by balancing loops of land availability, perceived exclusivity, and institutional resistance. It suggests that regulatory coordination alone may be insufficient and that early, coordinated investment in branding may be necessary to stimulate self-reinforcing growth, provided that governance aligns stakeholders, manages expansion, and preserves premium exclusivity. We did not run a stock-and-flow simulation or empirical test; the results are propositions for future quantitative assessment. The contribution shows how the timing of reputation-building and capacity expansion interacts with territorial and institutional constraints, with implications for geographical-indication policy and regional governance. The paper advances the policy debate on geographical indications by proposing a dynamic framework for adapting PDO systems to market shifts, with implications for regional governance and wine-sector development.