Does it matter how we measure family complexity? Sequence-based indices and children's educational outcomes

Objective The association between a wide range of family complexity indicators and children's educational outcomes was assessed. Background Previous research documented the negative impact of disadvantageous family transitions and family instability on children's educational outcomes. However, theoretical and empirical debates continue on how to measure family complexity during childhood. Method We are the first to combine dynamic sequence analysis with fixed-effects models: using UK linked survey–register data (UKHLS and the National Pupil Database for England), we construct eight family complexity measures including novel indices weighted by three theoretical perspectives and estimate within-child associations with math and English test scores, separately by child and parental gender. Results Family complexity measures are largely negatively associated with children's academic performance, but strength and even direction vary across measures, subjects, and parental gender. The number of transitions and the badness measures are most consistently associated with children's test scores. Associations are often stronger for boys compared to girls. Crucially, the conventional number-of-transitions measure blurs — and in some cases reverses — gender differences that the theory-driven measures reveal: boys are most affected by measures capturing parental absence in mothers' partnership histories (consistent with the same-sex hypothesis), while girls tend to be more affected by disruption and favorability perspectives. Conclusion Findings highlight the importance of theoretically derived measures of family complexity. Measures associated with family instability and parental absence were shown to be most often linked with children's educational outcomes. However, relying on family instability may conceal gender differences and their theoretical drivers, which are more effectively captured by the new family complexity measures suggested in this study.