Unexpected Inter‐Annual Variability in Methane Emissions From Western Siberia’s Oil and Gas Sector

Abstract Methane (CH 4 ) emissions from the oil and gas (O&G) sector are a major source of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. Russia is a leading CH 4 emitter, with the O&G sector accounting for approximately 80% of its total fossil fuel‐derived CH 4 emissions. However, long‐term emission trends remain unclear due to significant discrepancies between bottom‐up inventories and atmospheric model estimates. We utilized atmospheric CH 4 and carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) measurements (2005–2021) from the JR‐STATION in Western Siberia, Russia's primary fossil fuel‐producing region, to clarify O&G‐derived CH 4 emission variability. Our analysis reveals substantial fluctuations contradicting monotonic trends in national inventories. While national data sets suggest only gradual changes, our observations show a sharp increase exceeding 40% by 2009, followed by a decline through 2016 to levels 20% lower than in 2006. Despite rising O&G production, our findings do not support a continuous rise in CH 4 emissions, highlighting the necessity of long‐term monitoring to verify national estimates.