Carbon avoidance hubs under unilateral emissions trading: Far East–Europe analysis

The inclusion of maritime shipping in the European Union Emissions Trading System may encourage carriers to add non-European Union transshipment calls to reduce compliance costs, creating potential carbon-avoidance hubs and reshaping liner networks. This study identifies such hubs on the Far East–Northwest Europe route using 2024 automatic identification system data. A structure–service framework first evaluates port comprehensive importance by combining improved topological indicators with turnaround efficiency, berth capacity and operational stability. An avoidance-attractiveness model then incorporates carbon price, fuel pathway, detour and port costs, feeder connection, secondary emissions, physical accommodation and risk exposure. Results show a stable Far East-centered network and clear differences between structural and service-based port rankings. Avoidance expansion is threshold-based: Tanger Med and Suez-adjacent ports are robust avoidance-sensitive nodes, whereas West African ports are marginal only at high carbon prices. Green ammonia removes the carbon-saving basis, and risk constraints narrow feasible options.