Resilience Assessment and Risk Evolution of Global Crude Oil Trade Network

Within the global crude oil trade network (COTN), a trade disruption in a single country is prone to triggering a chain reaction through trade linkages, which may propagate and jeopardize the entire network. To enhance the security of crude oil trade, this paper evaluates the resilience of COTN and its potential risks. Firstly, we construct the COTN based on international crude oil trade data from 2007 to 2021. Secondly, drawing on resilience theory and cascade failure mechanisms, we establish a risk assessment framework for the COTN. Subsequently, we analyze the changes in resilience and risk characteristics of the entire COTN, major countries, and relevant international organizations, respectively. The results show that: (1) The observed changes in risks within the crude oil trade network appear to coincide with major crisis events, which may indicate a lagged response within the network. (2) Disruption originating from Saudi Arabia has the potential to drive the COTN toward collapse, while interruptions in the Netherlands, China, and the United States can trigger severe system-wide deterioration of the network. Meanwhile, the risks posed by Russia, China, and Angola have exhibited an upward trend. (3) The resilience associated with major international organizations has improved slightly. Furthermore, based on the research findings, relevant recommendations are proposed to enhance the resilience of the crude oil trade network and maintain stability in the oil trade.