The Development Costs of Revolution: Evidence From Violent and Nonviolent Transitions

ABSTRACT Using data from the Varieties of Democracy (V‐Dem) project and the NAVCO catalog (1950–2019), we estimate the developmental effects of successful revolutions through difference‐in‐differences models and event studies. Our findings differ from common expectations: neither violent nor nonviolent revolutions consistently deliver expected development benefits. Educational indicators remain largely unchanged across both types of revolutions, and both violent and nonviolent movements are associated with lower GDP per capita. Baseline effects on life expectancy are not distinguishable from zero, though some dynamic specifications suggest positive effects for nonviolent revolutions. Our results show that while revolutions may secure political and social gains, the economic costs are large, which raises questions about whether the benefits of revolution justify these development costs.