The Powerful Influence of Personal Decline: What Factors Drove Professional Golfers to join LIV Golf?

Abstract In 2021, the Saudi Arabia-backed LIV Golf was announced and soon shook the golf world by signing scores of golfers to join their upstart circuit and leave the dominant, century-old PGA Tour or other professional leagues. With data on the top 1,000 golfers in the world rankings, here I consider what drove golfers to accept a contract offer from LIV Golf. The tradeoff for top golfers was clear. While the PGA Tour was well established and internationally respected, financial rewards were almost entirely contingent on tournament-by-tournament performance. LIV Golf, while unproven, effectively unaccredited, and a product of Saudi Arabian monarch-ruled government, offered golfers signing bonuses, effectively guaranteeing their salary, while also giving them an easier path to win lucrative tournament prize money. The data clearly indicate that golfers in a state of decline were more likely to sign with LIV. That is, a logistic regression shows that LIV had more success signing golfers whose world ranking had dropped, who were playing fewer events per year, and were under-performing in the events they did play. The results offer insight into how professional athletes estimate their own value and speak to the potential vulnerability of established sports entities when challenged by well-funded upstarts. The apparent limited effects of golfers’ personal politics are also notable.