The Productivity Front of the Chip War: Semiconductors, Defence Spending and Total Factor Productivity in the United States

# Replication package **Article:** The Productivity Front of the Chip War: Semiconductors, Defence Spending and Total Factor Productivity in the United States ## Contents | File | Description ||---|---|| `replication.R` | Single script that reproduces all tables (1–9) and figures (1–4) of the article, in eight commented steps || `data.txt` | Annual series for 1980–2023 in natural logarithms (tab separated): semiconductor production index (`so`), real military expenditure (`ds`), defence R&D budget authority (`drd`) and real GDP (`y`) || `DefNon.xlsx` | AAAS, Historical Trends in Federal R&D, Table 5 (Defense, Nondefense and Total R&D, FY 1976–2023), used to build the defence R&D stock | ## How to run 1. Place the three files in one folder and set it as the R working directory.2. Run `replication.R` (tested with R 4.6.1). Missing packages are installed automatically.3. Step 1 downloads employment, the GDP deflator and the private nonresidential capital stock from the public FRED endpoint, so an internet connection is required. No API key is needed. The script writes `model1_data.txt` (the estimation data set) and the four figures to the working directory and prints every table to the console. ## Notes - Simulated quantities (exact bounds-test p-values, Enders–Granger p-values and the CUSUM of squares critical value) depend on the random number stream. Seeds are fixed at the start of each step, so reruns reproduce the reported values up to simulation error.- Defence R&D for fiscal years 2017 and 2018 is replaced by log-linear interpolation because of a change in the definition of R&D in those years (see the notes to Table 1). ## Data sources U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis and U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (via FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis); Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (FRED series IPG3344S); Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, SIPRI Military Expenditure Database; American Association for the Advancement of Science, Historical Trends in Federal R&D.