Flood Risk Assessment and Vulnerability Analysis in Ogbese, Ondo State, Nigeria: Implications for Sustainable Urban Planning

Flooding has become one of the most frequent and destructive environmental hazards in Nigeria, with increasing impacts on lives, livelihoods, and infrastructure, particularly in rapidly expanding peri-urban communities. Despite the recurrent occurrence of flood events in Ogbese, limited empirical information exists on the combined influence of physical and socio-economic factors that shape flood vulnerability and risk. This study assessed the causes, impacts, vulnerability, and spatial distribution of flood risk in Ogbese, Akure North Local Government Area, Ondo State. A mixed-methods approach was adopted, integrating household surveys, field observations, GIS-based flood hazard mapping, socio-economic vulnerability assessment, and statistical analysis. A total of 120 questionnaires were administered using systematic random sampling. The findings showed that 81.7% of respondents had experienced flooding, while 68.3% reported a high annual occurrence. Inadequate drainage infrastructure, indiscriminate waste disposal, intense rainfall, and encroachment on flood-prone areas were identified as the major drivers of flooding. Spatial analysis revealed that approximately 60% of residential areas and farmlands are located within High and Very High flood hazard zones. Although the community exhibited moderate socio-economic vulnerability, integrating vulnerability with flood hazard resulted in High to Very High flood risk for both residential and agricultural sectors. The study concludes that flood risk in Ogbese is shaped by the interaction of environmental conditions and socio-economic vulnerability. It recommends improved drainage infrastructure, stricter land-use planning, sustainable waste management, and the integration of geospatial information into local flood risk management and development planning.