To the Global South: The Evolution of Mainland Chinese Outbound Destinations, 2000–2024

This study investigates the evolution of Mainland Chinese outbound tourism destinations from 2000 to 2024 using a longitudinal dataset. While Western and neighboring countries remain significant destinations, the analysis reveals a long-term but uneven and non-linear expansion toward the Global South, including the Pacific Islands, Antarctica, the Middle East, and Africa—challenging conventional geographical and policy-centric narratives. This evolution is conceptualized as a “Dual Expansion” pattern, reflecting the interplay between China’s socio-economic development, evolving tourist agency, and shifting geopolitical landscapes. Theoretically, this paper advances the perspective of “Imagined Regions” to explain how destinations, despite their modest statistical scale, acquire symbolic value as extreme and exotic spaces with alternative modernities. Our framework integrates tourists, state-level steering mechanisms (e.g., the Approved Destination Status system and visa liberalization), and geopolitical macro-drivers to advance a more nuanced understanding of contemporary cross-border mobility. The analysis further extends to international migration studies by conceptualizing tourism as a potential precursor to investment, retirement, and business migration, thereby contributing to broader debates on the tourism–migration nexus.