Women’s job market outcomes around live births and pregnancy losses

Up to one in five or six recognised pregnancies ends in an involuntary loss, yet what follows for women’s working lives is largely undocumented. In fifteen waves of the UK panel Understanding Society, this event study follows 2654 women whose first reported pregnancy ends in a live birth or a loss, each against her own pre-pregnancy baseline. After a loss, the hourly wage declines by 6 to 7% in the first year, with no detectable change in employment or hours. Employment and hours fall from the second year, and earnings decline by about £760 per month after five years, concentrated among the women who later become mothers, unlike the wage decline. Human capital, subsequent childbearing, career characteristics, and health account for only part of these gaps. Women whose pregnancy ends in a live birth show the well-documented child penalty. A pregnancy loss, then, carries labour-market costs in its own right. • Event study of 2654 UK women whose first pregnancy ends in a live birth or a loss. • After a loss, the hourly wage falls at once and stays below baseline for years. • Employment and hours hold up in the first year, then decline from the second. • Earnings fall by about £760 a month after five years, mostly among later mothers. • Observed channels explain only part of the gap that follows a pregnancy loss.