Maple syrup production in the United States: growth decomposition, variability and policy implications

Purpose This study decomposes the growth of US maple syrup production (Q) from 2001 to 2025 into contributions of the number of taps (N), yield per tap (Y) and their interaction, assesses the variability of Q, N and Y, and derives policy implications. Design/methodology/approach Data at the national level and by seven major production states are used to decompose the growth through regression analysis and assess the variability of each variable using the Cuddy Della Valle Index Findings Results derived from the national data suggest that with an estimated discrete average annual growth rate (DAAGR) of 7.49% in Q, the contributions from N, Y and their interaction were 59.14%, 39.12% and 1.74%, respectively. The three corresponding contributions based on the state-level data were 56.05%, 42.33% and 1.62%, respectively, for a slightly lower DAAGR of 6.78% in Q. While the estimated CDVIs for the national Q, N, and Y were 0.157, 0.062 and 0.114, respectively, the estimated values for the seven states showed significant variations across the states. Originality/value While US agricultural policy and investment have primarily focused on yield improvement, future policy and investment for maple syrup as a non-timber forest product need to focus on both improving the yield and increasing the number of taps with adjustments for forest endowment, utilization and access across regions. Also, targeted support for the development and adoption of climate resilient technologies and management strategies is needed to help the industry reduce the variability in yield, number of taps and production and achieve more sustainable growth.