Digital Divide or Digital Dividend? The Impact of the Data Element on Coordinated Regional Economic Development

As a new factor of production, the data element’s role in reshaping regional development patterns remains to be thoroughly revealed. Drawing on panel data from 30 Chinese provinces for the period 2013–2024, this paper systematically investigates the impact of the data element on coordinated regional economic development and the underlying mechanisms. The findings indicate that the data element exerts a U-shaped nonlinear effect on coordinated regional economic development—initially inhibiting and subsequently promoting it. Government digital attention and industrial co-agglomeration are identified as two potential mechanisms associated with the data element proxy. Both exhibit a U-shaped association consistent with the main effect. However, further testing is required to confirm their actual transmission roles. Heterogeneity analysis reveals that a significant U-shaped effect exists in both the eastern and western regions, whereas the nonlinear impact of the data element on coordinated regional economic development is not yet statistically significant in the central region. Spatial spillover tests confirm that the data element generates a U-shaped impact on coordinated regional economic development both locally and in neighboring regions. These findings provide empirical evidence on the phased dynamics of the data element’s regional effects and offer a reference for the design of differentiated digital policies.