The Impact of Digital Infrastructure on Agricultural Green Total Factor Productivity—An Empirical Study from China

Agricultural sustainability remains a global priority, but how digital infrastructure accelerates this transition is still poorly specified. Drawing on provincial panel data from 30 Chinese provinces (2010–2023), this study quantifies the effect of digital infrastructure on agricultural green total factor productivity (AGTFP). The empirical strategy combines entropy weighting, a super-efficiency SBM-GML index, two-way fixed-effects panel estimation, and mediation-moderation analysis. Four results stand out. First, digital infrastructure raises AGTFP significantly, and this conclusion survives a series of robustness checks. Second, the effect is context-dependent: it strengthens where environmental regulation is stringent and where digital infrastructure is already well developed, whereas the east–central/west divide fails a formal interaction test. Third, the effect travels through two mediating channels—agricultural technological innovation and the scaling of service provision—rather than through land consolidation. Fourth, rural human capital amplifies the efficiency gains. Taken together, the findings suggest that digital infrastructure does not deliver sustainability dividends automatically; complementary institutions and human capital are required, and scale economies materialize mainly through service provision rather than land aggregation.