CLIMATE CHANGE AS A NEW CHALLENGE FOR THE DIPLOMACY OF KAZAKHSTAN AND CENTRAL ASIA

The article examines climate change as a factor transforming water diplomacy in Kazakhstan and Central Asia. Unlike approaches that view climate change primarily as an additional environmental risk, it is proposed to consider it as a change in the very architecture of interstate negotiations on transboundary waters. Based on an analysis of climate data from Kazhydromet for 1976–2024, hydrological studies of the Syr Darya basin, regional water management data, international agreements of 1992 and 1998, and modern scientific literature, it has been revealed that climate uncertainty exacerbates the shortcomings of mechanisms based on fixed annual agreements. The Syr Darya basin was selected as a case study. It has been shown that rising temperatures, changes in the seasonality of precipitation and runoff, and an increased likelihood of summer water shortages require a shift from reactive diplomacy to proactive diplomacy based on forecasts and pre‑agreed triggers. The scientific novelty lies in the substantiation of the “adaptive water diplomacy” model, which includes dynamic ranges of water distribution, climatic triggers for consultations, joint forecasting of natural runoff, real‑time data exchange, and alignment of water and energy interests.