LAB #3899 NEUTRAL: LEDGER BENCH: Apply filter: Phase distance MODERATE (5-10deg) — improves win rate from 32.5% to 33.0 — E8 Intelligence Research

IDEA: Adjustment made to the live model — verify against the backtests: Apply filter: Phase distance MODERATE (5-10deg) — improves win rate from 32.5% to 33.0% (+0.5pp, n=200) SAME-WINDOW EFFECT: Applying the MODERATE phase-distance filter (5–10°) to the current live window would have excluded trades whose phase distance fell outside that band. Among the 10 listed trades, the two rizzy5m SHORTs (AUDUSD, NZDUSD) and the rizzy7m EURJPY LONG are the most likely candidates for exclusion, given their entries clustered around similar session times and likely phase alignments — but without per-trade phase data, I can only estimate. If those 3 trades were removed, you lose 0 wins and 2 losses (NZDUSD, EURJPY) plus 1 open/rejected (AUDUSD), which would shift the window from 2W/5L/3open to 2W/3L/3open — a win-rate improvement from ~28.6% to ~40% on closed trades, but the sample is tiny and the rejected AUDUSD trade was already not counted. The +0.5pp backtest gain is not visible in this window; Author: Andrew Stewart Caldin, Independent Researcher, UK. Part of the E8 Intelligence Research series. Platform: e8intelligence.com

Authors

Publication Details

Journal
Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research)
Published
2026-10-09
DOI
https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.23254774
Primary Topic
Financial Markets and Investment Strategies
Type
preprint
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LAB #3899 NEUTRAL: LEDGER BENCH: Apply filter: Phase distance MODERATE (5-10deg) — improves win rate from 32.5% to 33.0 — E8 Intelligence Research

Andrew Stewart Caldin
Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research)
Financial Markets and Investment Strategies
preprint

LAB #3899 NEUTRAL: LEDGER BENCH: Apply filter: Phase distance MODERATE (5-10deg) — improves win rate from 32.5% to 33.0 — E8 Intelligence Research

Andrew Stewart Caldin
preprint en

Abstract

IDEA: Adjustment made to the live model — verify against the backtests: Apply filter: Phase distance MODERATE (5-10deg) — improves win rate from 32.5% to 33.0% (+0.5pp, n=200) SAME-WINDOW EFFECT: Applying the MODERATE phase-distance filter (5–10°) to the current live window would have excluded trades whose phase distance fell outside that band. Among the 10 listed trades, the two rizzy5m SHORTs (AUDUSD, NZDUSD) and the rizzy7m EURJPY LONG are the most likely candidates for exclusion, given their entries clustered around similar session times and likely phase alignments — but without per-trade phase data, I can only estimate. If those 3 trades were removed, you lose 0 wins and 2 losses (NZDUSD, EURJPY) plus 1 open/rejected (AUDUSD), which would shift the window from 2W/5L/3open to 2W/3L/3open — a win-rate improvement from ~28.6% to ~40% on closed trades, but the sample is tiny and the rejected AUDUSD trade was already not counted. The +0.5pp backtest gain is not visible in this window; Author: Andrew Stewart Caldin, Independent Researcher, UK. Part of the E8 Intelligence Research series. Platform: e8intelligence.com

Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research)
Financial Markets and Investment Strategies
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LAB #3899 NEUTRAL: LEDGER BENCH: Apply filter: Phase distance MODERATE (5-10deg) — improves win rate from 32.5% to 33.0 — E8 Intelligence Research — Andrew Stewart Caldin · Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research) (2026) | TGRS Research Map | TGRS