Climate Change and Water Management Nexus: An Integrated Assessment of Water-Use-Efficiency and Productivity Among Smallholder Wheat Farmers in Nigeria

This study addresses the persistent challenge of low wheat productivity and inefficient water use among smallholder farmers in North Western Nigeria, a region increasingly affected by water scarcity, climate variability, and weak irrigation infrastructure. Despite rising demand for wheat, local production remains inadequate, largely due to limited adoption of sustainable water management practices. The study aims to assess the determinants and conditional effects of adopting such practices on wheat yield and water-use efficiency. Primary data were collected from smallholder wheat farmers using a multi-stage sampling technique across Katsina, Kano, and Kaduna States. The study employed descriptive statistics, principal component analysis (PCA), multivariate probit (MVP) regression, and Bayesian linear regression to analyse adoption behaviour and its effects on productivity outcomes. PCA identified nine key components explaining 68.46% of the variation in water management practices. The MVP results revealed that gender, household size, cooperative membership, farm size, access to credit, and market distance significantly influence adoption decisions, while also highlighting substitutability among practices due to resource constraints. The Bayesian regression results show that adoption of sustainable water management practices were positively associated with wheat yield and water-use efficiency, confirming evidence of a positive association with enhancing productivity under water-limited conditions. The study concludes that improving wheat productivity requires integrated interventions that address both technological and institutional constraints. It recommends strengthening extension systems, promoting targeted agricultural financing, enhancing cooperative-based support, improving rural infrastructure, and adopting climate-smart, location-specific strategies to drive widespread adoption and build resilient agrifood systems.