LAB #3893 NEUTRAL: LEDGER BENCH: Apply filter: Phase distance TIGHT (<=2deg) — improves win rate from 32.5% to 37.6% (+ — E8 Intelligence Research

IDEA: Adjustment made to the live model — verify against the backtests: Apply filter: Phase distance TIGHT (<=2deg) — improves win rate from 32.5% to 37.6% (+5.1pp, n=590) SAME-WINDOW EFFECT: Applying a tight phase-distance filter (≤2°) would have blocked most of the current live trades, as the entries shown are predominantly from rizzy5m/7m and wkjudas signals that rarely align within 2° of the phase cycle. In this window, the filter would likely have eliminated the two losses (NZDUSD SHORT, XAUUSD SHORT) and possibly the EURJPY LOSS, but also the GBPUSD WIN — net effect on the 10-trade sample is roughly neutral to slightly positive, with a projected win-rate delta of +2–4pp and a PnL delta near zero due to reduced trade count. The backtest's +5.1pp improvement is not clearly reproduced here because the sample is small and the filter's benefit appears concentrated in choppy regimes, not the trending conditions of this window. OVER-TIME PROJECTION: Over 3–6 months, the tight filter w Author: Andrew Stewart Caldin, Independent Researcher, UK. Part of the E8 Intelligence Research series. Platform: e8intelligence.com

Authors

Publication Details

Journal
Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research)
Published
2026-10-09
DOI
https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.23254630
Primary Topic
Stock Market Forecasting Methods
Type
preprint
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LAB #3893 NEUTRAL: LEDGER BENCH: Apply filter: Phase distance TIGHT (<=2deg) — improves win rate from 32.5% to 37.6% (+ — E8 Intelligence Research

Andrew Stewart Caldin
Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research)
Stock Market Forecasting Methods
preprint

LAB #3893 NEUTRAL: LEDGER BENCH: Apply filter: Phase distance TIGHT (<=2deg) — improves win rate from 32.5% to 37.6% (+ — E8 Intelligence Research

Andrew Stewart Caldin
preprint en

Abstract

IDEA: Adjustment made to the live model — verify against the backtests: Apply filter: Phase distance TIGHT (<=2deg) — improves win rate from 32.5% to 37.6% (+5.1pp, n=590) SAME-WINDOW EFFECT: Applying a tight phase-distance filter (≤2°) would have blocked most of the current live trades, as the entries shown are predominantly from rizzy5m/7m and wkjudas signals that rarely align within 2° of the phase cycle. In this window, the filter would likely have eliminated the two losses (NZDUSD SHORT, XAUUSD SHORT) and possibly the EURJPY LOSS, but also the GBPUSD WIN — net effect on the 10-trade sample is roughly neutral to slightly positive, with a projected win-rate delta of +2–4pp and a PnL delta near zero due to reduced trade count. The backtest's +5.1pp improvement is not clearly reproduced here because the sample is small and the filter's benefit appears concentrated in choppy regimes, not the trending conditions of this window. OVER-TIME PROJECTION: Over 3–6 months, the tight filter w Author: Andrew Stewart Caldin, Independent Researcher, UK. Part of the E8 Intelligence Research series. Platform: e8intelligence.com

Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research)
Stock Market Forecasting Methods
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