Present and future habitat suitability and connectivity of the Oriental Bay Owl ( Phodilus badius ) in South and Southeast Asia: roles of biophysical drivers and anthropogenic night light

South and Southeast Asia support the highest numbers of both threatened and poorly known species. Among them is the Oriental Bay Owl (Phodilus badius) a poorly known and rare nocturnal species in the family Tytonidae. Due to the limited ecological understanding of the species, the present study delineates the habitat suitability and dynamics of connectivity pathways under present and future climate scenarios. The ensemble model identified that the species is associated with moderate diurnal temperature variation, moderate rainfall and areas in close proximity to forests with preference for darker environments, potentially avoiding areas exposed to greater artificial light at night. The model delineated 470,897 km2 as suitable for P. badius within its extant range. However, future projections indicated an overall decline in habitat suitability for P. badius. Under SSP245, the consensus suitable area declined by 43.17 to 57.03% across the two projection periods. The decline was more pronounced under SSP585, with the consensus suitable area decreasing by 51.98 to 85.43%. These shifts also resulted in notable changes in the spatial geometry of suitable areas and connectivity pathways across the region. The study highlights the potential impacts of climate change and provides important insights for broader biodiversity conservation in this region.