Circular Economy and Supply Chain Performance Under Geopolitical Tensions: The Roles of Recycling Efficiency and Logistics Infrastructure Capability

ABSTRACT This study analyzed the effects of circular economy practices, resource self‐sufficiency capability, and organizational resilience capability on supply chain distribution performance in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) region amid geopolitical tensions. The escalating geopolitical uncertainty, trade restrictions, and disrupted supply chains have illustrated the vulnerability of global supply chains, compelling organizations to implement measures that improve resource efficiency, resiliency, and sustainability over the long term. A quantitative cross‐sectional survey was used in manufacturing and logistics firms, and data were collected from 320 manufacturing experts, supply chain managers, logistics experts, policy advisors, and sustainability officers across all six GCC countries. Smart PLS used partial least squares structural equation modeling (PLS‐SEM) to analyze the data, including measurement model evaluation to assess reliability and validity and structural model evaluation to assess the effects of direct, mediating, and moderating variables. With the aid of dynamic capability theory and closed‐loop supply chain theory, this study has come up with a synthesized model to describe the role of internal capabilities and circular practices in enhancing the outcomes of distribution. The study hypothesizes that recycling efficiency is a mediating factor that converts circular economy initiatives into actual operational advantages in terms of better material recovery, less reliance on external resources, and more predictable input flows. Moreover, logistics infrastructure capability is studied as a moderating factor reinforcing the relationship between recycling efficiency and distribution performance by making it able to revive efficient product returns, recovery, and reintegration processes. Based on empirical research data of companies that are working in GCC supply chains, the analysis aims to inform how companies can improve distribution efficiency and resilience and promote circular economy goals in a geopolitically uncertain context.