Scenario-Based Assessment of Biomethane Market Integration in Ukraine: Feedstocks, Infrastructure, and Decarbonisation

Biomethane production from agricultural residues and livestock waste offers Ukraine a strategic pathway to strengthen energy security, reduce greenhouse gas emissions, and integrate renewable gases into the European energy system. This study develops and evaluates three scenarios for the Ukrainian biomethane market under European integration: conservative, baseline, and innovation-driven integration. The scenarios differ in investment intensity, public support, regulatory alignment with EU requirements, deployment of anaerobic digestion and biogas upgrading technologies, sustainability certification, and access to domestic and cross-border gas infrastructure. An integrated scenario framework combines agricultural feedstock availability, technological readiness, institutional conditions, market integration, and environmental effects. The results indicate that Ukraine has substantial potential to become an important producer and supplier of sustainable biomethane to the European Union because of its large agricultural resource base, existing gas infrastructure, and geographical proximity to EU markets (projected production in 2030 of 0.26–0.88 billion m3/year, required capital expenditure ranging from EUR 360 million to EUR 1.51 billion, and emission reductions ranging from 443.6 to 649.8 thousand t CO2-eq/year under the conservative scenario, from 870.2 to 1274.6 thousand t CO2-eq/year under the baseline scenario, and from 1464.1 to 2144.6 thousand t CO2-eq/year under the innovation-driven integration scenario). The innovation-driven integration scenario provides the strongest prospects for increasing biomethane output, accelerating the modernisation of biomass conversion systems, expanding grid injection and cross-border trade, substituting fossil natural gas, and reducing emissions from agriculture and energy use. However, its implementation depends on stable investment conditions, transparent guarantees of origin, harmonised sustainability criteria, and coordinated energy and agricultural policies. This study contributes an interdisciplinary scenario-based approach that links biosystems engineering, renewable energy conversion, energy system analysis, and policy design. The findings support strategic planning for biomethane infrastructure, investment prioritisation, and the integration of Ukraine’s agricultural bioenergy potential into a circular and low-carbon European energy system.