Environmental relationships with Silver Carp population ecology across the Mississippi River basin

Abstract Objective Silver Carp Hypophthalmichthys molitrix are of special concern to fisheries management agencies across the Mississippi River basin, but effective control of the species is challenging. Our objectives were to (1) identify spatial and environmental patterns among key Silver Carp demographic rates that could be exploited by removal programs and (2) develop predictive models of Silver Carp demographic rates using readily available environmental data that could potentially be used to quantify population ecology without expending the resources to conduct population assessments. Methods We collected Silver Carp from six rivers within the lower Mississippi River subbasin (i.e., Arkansas, Cache, Mississippi, St. Francis, White, and Yazoo rivers) and compiled raw data from populations in the upper Mississippi, Missouri, and Ohio River subbasins to estimate demographic rates (i.e., growth, mortality, and recruitment variability). We compared the demographic rates among subbasins and between main stems and tributaries using standard nonparametric tests. We used information-theoretic model selection to evaluate relationships among demographic rates, environmental conditions, and invasion stage. Results In general, lower Mississippi River subbasin populations exhibited faster growth and lower mortality than did those from the upper Mississippi River subbasin. Populations in main-stem rivers did not differ from those in tributaries. More established populations in warmer, free-flowing rivers (e.g., White River) generally experienced faster growth, lower mortality, and more stable recruitment than less established populations in cooler, impounded rivers (e.g., Illinois River). Conclusions The results indicated that variability in Silver Carp populations was related to environmental conditions and invasion stage. Our results suggested that the effectiveness of removal programs might be ­improved by targeting populations in warm hydrologically variable rivers, as they may have increased reproduction capacities and emigration rates. The equations provided here may be used to estimate population ­demographics for Silver Carp and help determine their potential sensitivity to management actions, without expending the resources that are required to collect population-specific biological data.