Unlocking the green power of the North Sea: Identifying key energy infrastructure synergies for 2030 and 2040

The North Sea will play a key role in providing clean and secure energy for Europe. This not only requires the development of new offshore wind farms, but also their successful integration into the onshore system. In this work we analyze and compare three key integration options and their preferred siting (onshore vs. offshore): grid expansions, electricity storage, and the production, storage and transport of low-carbon hydrogen. We focus on their potential to reduce emissions and energy system costs – individually and in combination with each other. Additionally, we study the consequences of constraints on their implementation. We analyze the years 2030 and 2040, starting from the projections of installed energy infrastructure and demand from the Ten Year Network Development Plan (TYNDP) 2022 of the European Network of Transmission System Operators (ENTSO-E). Results show that cross-border electricity grid expansions across the North Sea are a no-regret measure, resulting in significant reductions in system costs and emissions compared to national grid expansions. By comparison, the production, storage and transport of hydrogen have a lower cost and emission reduction potential. In both the short and long term (2030 and 2040), electricity storage can help to reduce emissions, but it is not cost competitive unless emission reduction targets are enforced. Combining the three integration measures at optimal capacities provides additional benefits. Overall, the highest emission reductions can be achieved by combining electricity storage with an expansion of the grid, while the highest economic benefits can be achieved with a combination of grid expansions and hydrogen production for direct use in industry.