Pathways for fulfilling global extended producer responsibility: a data-driven optimization for sustainable and circular electric vehicle battery supply chains

As electric vehicle (EV) adoption accelerates, managing end-of-life (EOL) batteries is critical for EPR implementation. This study optimizes recovery networks for China's exported EV batteries across 172 destinations. We develop a bi-objective MILP framework with Weibull-based forecasting, processing capacities from 156 Chinese recyclers and CAPEX of 24 automakers (2025–2060). Evaluating Ship Back, Local Plant, and Formal Outsource, results show cumulative EOL demand of 57.96 Mt over 2025–2060 and demand of 4.78 Mt in 2060. Domestic capacity constraints force profit-driven systems toward localized overseas recycling. Relative to PROFIT_MAX, CARBON_MIN advances local investment by ten years, raises local processing by 11.2 percentage points, and improves net GHG mitigation by 16.3%, but reduces NPV by 54.4%. PARETO_KNEE captures 66.7% of additional mitigation with a 13.2% NPV loss. CARBON_MIN yields the highest Li, Co, and Ni recovery, revealing synergy between environmental optimisation and resource circularity.