Wild-card allocation and competitive performance in professional padel: a retrospective analysis of the Premier Padel circuit

This study examined Wild Cards (WCs) allocation and competitive performance in the Premier Padel circuit, focusing on set competitiveness. A retrospective observational study was conducted using publicly available data from 26 Premier Padel tournaments held in 2023 and 2024. A total of 175 WCs entries were identified. After exclusions, 181 matches (including matches from advancing WCs pairs) and 391 sets were retained. Data were analysed using descriptive statistics, bivariate tests, and a generalised linear mixed model with a binomial distribution and logit link function, including match identifier as a random intercept. WCs allocation was uneven between draws, with 127 entries in the men’s draw (72.6%) and 48 in the women’s draw (27.4%). Most WCs were awarded to national pairs. Match win rates were low, especially in the women’s draw (men: 11.3%; women: 2.1%). WCs pairs had higher odds of achieving a competitive set outcome against non-seeded than seeded opponents (aOR = 2.58, 95%CI [1.28, 5.18], p = 0.008), whereas WCs pairs in the women’s draw had lower odds than those in the men’s draw (aOR = 0.49, 95%CI [0.26, 0.95], p = 0.035). WCs provide access to elite competition but rarely translate into competitive success. Future WCs policies should balance developmental and promotional objectives with competitive balance.