Does Industry–University–Research System Coordination Really Mediate Fiscal S&T Investment? A Differentiated Examination of Regional Innovation Systems

This study examines how fiscal science and technology (S&T) investment is associated with regional innovation performance through industry-university-research (IUR) system coordination, a critical issue for optimizing S&T resource allocation and advancing high-quality regional economic development. Based on 2010–2020 panel data covering 28 Chinese provincial regions, we adopt the entropy weight method to construct a composite index of regional innovation performance covering knowledge and economic outputs. Taking IUR system coordination as the mediating variable and controlling for a full set of regional characteristics, we unpack the dynamic correlation and transmission mechanism linking fiscal S&T investment and regional innovation outcomes. The results show that fiscal S&T investment is positively associated with regional innovation performance, with both basic and applied research investment exhibiting positive associations. However, mediation analyses reveal that the indirect effects through IUR system coordination lack sufficient statistical support in both pathways. These findings suggest that the positive association between fiscal S&T investment and regional innovation performance is not transmitted through the indirect channel of IUR system coordination. The results also reveal cross-regional innovation gaps and provide targeted policy references for optimizing fiscal S&T investment structure and improving investment efficiency.