The impact of narratives of the future on marriage and fertility intentions in Japan: economic uncertainty, population prospects, and policy directions

Despite economic changes and the expansion of family policies, fertility rates in East Asian countries, including Japan, remain persistently low. One possible explanation is that widespread pessimism about future economic and demographic conditions dampens individuals’ intentions to marry and have children. Against this backdrop, this study applies a narrative framework to examine the effects of future-oriented narratives—specifically those concerning the economy, population, and policy—on the marriage and fertility intentions of unmarried individuals in Japan. In this study, a factorial survey experiment is conducted among unmarried individuals aged 23–32 years in Japan ( N = 2,270), a context in which low levels of cohabitation and nonmarital childbearing, along with declining marriage rates, substantially contribute to declining fertility rates. The experiment constructs positive, status quo, and negative scenarios across three dimensions—the economy, population, and policy—which are randomly combined into vignettes. The respondents’ marriage and fertility intentions are measured in response to these scenarios. The results show that economic scenarios clearly affect both marriage and fertility intentions, whereas negative population scenarios reduce both outcomes. Policy scenarios also influence both intentions. These findings suggest that the spread of pessimistic narratives about the future of the economy and population, coupled with a lack of significant policy expansion, may contribute to discouraging people from forming families. This study demonstrates that the narrative framework applies to both fertility and marriage intentions and extends the relevance of this framework to East Asian contexts.