Heterogeneous Transition Capacity for Urban Carbon-Neutral Development in China

Achieving urban carbon neutrality requires not only ambitious mitigation targets but also urban conditions capable of supporting implementation. However, whether cities possess such transition capacity remains insufficiently understood. Here, we develop an empirical framework to evaluate urban transition capacity across 336 Chinese cities by integrating carbon emission characteristics, policy and technology, ecological endowment, and energy potential. We identify substantial heterogeneity: 40 cities are classified as high-capacity, while most cities fall into medium- or low-capacity groups with systematically different obstacle compositions. High-capacity cities exhibit stronger conditions across all four capacity dimensions, but weighted obstacle structures shift progressively across groups. Policy and technology represent the largest relative obstacle component throughout, whereas the contribution of carbon emission characteristics increases markedly as transition capacity declines. Together, these results link multidimensional capacity assessment with group-specific obstacle diagnostics across a large urban system. The findings question the suitability of uniform mitigation strategies across heterogeneous urban contexts and support capacity-oriented governance that aligns transition priorities with city-specific conditions.