The Stellar Death Clock: Thermodynamic Constraints on Civilizational Survival

This work proposes a thermodynamically constrained framework for interpreting the Fermi Paradox. Rather than attributing the absence of detectable extraterrestrial civilizations solely to sociological or self-destructive Great Filters, the study explores the possibility that stellar evolution itself may impose a temporal constraint on civilizational longevity for hosts whose main-sequence lifetime is comparable to or shorter than the Sun's. Using the Earth-Sun system as a baseline, the paper develops a mathematical model of the Civilizational Survival Factor ($\Psi$) to relate remaining habitability, energy availability, and complexity-driven maintenance costs. Beyond socio-economic scaling analogies, the framework adds a scaling argument: under four explicitly stated architectural assumptions, the cost of keeping a three-dimensional distributed technosphere coherent grows as $E_{\mathrm{gross}}^{4/3}$, because the light-crossing time grows with the size of the system. Unavoidable logically irreversible operations (Landauer's principle) set a physical floor on this cost. Under this regime, increasing coordination, state synchronization and repair reduce the net free power available for long-term expansion. Classical interstellar exodus scenarios are evaluated against these bounds, suggesting that such strategies are comparatively costly, whereas controlled planetary orbital migration is presented as a comparatively less costly mitigation pathway, without implying that interstellar travel is impossible. This paper does not claim to resolve the Fermi Paradox definitively, but offers a falsifiable theoretical baseline to guide future empirical observations and technosignature modeling.

Authors

Institutions

Publication Details

Journal
Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research)
Published
2026-10-09
DOI
https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.23250743
Primary Topic
Space Science and Extraterrestrial Life
Type
preprint
Controls
|||
ALL TIME
JAN
FEB
MAR
APR
MAY
JUN
JUL
AUG
SEP
OCT
preprint

The Stellar Death Clock: Thermodynamic Constraints on Civilizational Survival

Moisés Frutos Plaza
Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research)
Space Science and Extraterrestrial Life
preprint

The Stellar Death Clock: Thermodynamic Constraints on Civilizational Survival

Moisés Frutos Plaza
preprint en

Abstract

This work proposes a thermodynamically constrained framework for interpreting the Fermi Paradox. Rather than attributing the absence of detectable extraterrestrial civilizations solely to sociological or self-destructive Great Filters, the study explores the possibility that stellar evolution itself may impose a temporal constraint on civilizational longevity for hosts whose main-sequence lifetime is comparable to or shorter than the Sun's. Using the Earth-Sun system as a baseline, the paper develops a mathematical model of the Civilizational Survival Factor ($\Psi$) to relate remaining habitability, energy availability, and complexity-driven maintenance costs. Beyond socio-economic scaling analogies, the framework adds a scaling argument: under four explicitly stated architectural assumptions, the cost of keeping a three-dimensional distributed technosphere coherent grows as $E_{\mathrm{gross}}^{4/3}$, because the light-crossing time grows with the size of the system. Unavoidable logically irreversible operations (Landauer's principle) set a physical floor on this cost. Under this regime, increasing coordination, state synchronization and repair reduce the net free power available for long-term expansion. Classical interstellar exodus scenarios are evaluated against these bounds, suggesting that such strategies are comparatively costly, whereas controlled planetary orbital migration is presented as a comparatively less costly mitigation pathway, without implying that interstellar travel is impossible. This paper does not claim to resolve the Fermi Paradox definitively, but offers a falsifiable theoretical baseline to guide future empirical observations and technosignature modeling.

Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research)
Universidad de Murcia (ES)
Space Science and Extraterrestrial Life
AI Navigator

Ask Laika to Summarize, Analyze, and Connect papers live on the map.

Summarize Papers & Methodologies

Extract key findings, datasets, and comparative methods across publications.

Benchmark Rankings & Visual Analytics

Rank top research institutions, authors, funders, topics, and journals by Field-Weighted Citation Impact (FWCI) and paper volume with instant charts.

Connect Distant Disciplines

Bridge topological clusters on the map to find hidden collaborative intersections.

The Stellar Death Clock: Thermodynamic Constraints on Civilizational Survival — Moisés Frutos Plaza · Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research) (2026) | TGRS Research Map | TGRS