Gender Effects of Party Switching on Mayoral Reelection: Evidence from Brazil

This paper investigates how party switching affects the reelection outcomes of Brazilian incumbent mayors from 2004 to 2016, with particular attention to gender-based heterogeneity. While most of the literature focuses on legislators, we examine the executive branch and assess whether party switching before reelection affects male and female incumbent mayors differently. Given the non-random assignment to treatment between switchers and non-switchers, we use Propensity Score Matching and Reweighting to account for selection on observable characteristics. Our findings indicate no statistically significant association between party switching and reelection outcomes for male incumbents but show that party switching is associated with a reduction of 8.2 to 10.5 percentage points in the reelection chances of female mayors. These results highlight gendered dynamics in political accountability and suggest that women face higher electoral penalties for behavior perceived as opportunistic or disloyal. These findings underscore the importance of more inclusive political institutions.