From Competitiveness to Sustainable Security Capability: Spatial Patterns and Institutional Logic of China’s Rice Food Security Governance

Background: Global food supply chains face intensifying geopolitical and climate disruptions, posing significant threats to environmental sustainability and resource equity. Conventional competitiveness frameworks, which prioritize market share and export performance, inadequately capture the sustainable development logic of populous developing countries. China produces approximately 27% of global rice output but accounts for less than 1.5% of global exports, while maintaining a self-sufficiency rate exceeding 95%—a paradox that existing market-centric theories cannot coherently explain. Objective: This study proposes “Rice Food Security Capability (RFSC)” as an alternative conceptual framework to quantify and monitor the sustainability of staple-food systems, empirically examines its spatial distribution across China’s 31 provinces (2015–2023), and distills transferable lessons for developing countries. Methods: A five-dimensional evaluation system was constructed covering production, processing, industry integration, market, and policy dimensions. principal component analysis (PCA), exploratory spatial data analysis (ESDA), and Getis-Ord Gi hot spot analysis were applied to provincial-level data. Qualitative indicators were assessed via a six-expert panel with intraclass correlation coefficients (ICCs) of 0.87 and 0.82, exceeding the 0.75 good threshold. Results: Five principal components explained 91.51% of total variance in 2023. The Middle-Lower Yangtze River region (comprehensive score 0.52) and Northeast China (0.47) constitute high-capability agglomeration areas, highlighting regional disparities crucial for sustainable resource allocation, while Southwest China (0.22) and Northern China (0.13) exhibit lower capability. Global Moran’s I ranged from 0.241 to 0.310 (p < 0.01), confirming significant spatial clustering. Government strategic security capability (F4) exhibited negative spatial autocorrelation (I = −0.217, p < 0.05), revealing inter-regional policy compensation dynamics. Whole-industry-chain security capability (F1), explaining 57.33% of variance, is the primary pillar. Conclusion: China’s rice security capability rests on three mechanisms: government-led policy coordination, technology-driven innovation, and multi-agent whole-chain resilience. Four replicable lessons for achieving Sustainable Development Goal 2 (zero hunger) and promoting sustainable agriculture emerge: whole-chain thinking, institutional coordination priority, technology localization, and reliance on domestic supply. These findings provide a quantifiable tool for policymakers to assess and monitor the sustainability of food governance.