Mapping the vulnerability of the Egyptian spiny-tailed lizard ( Uromastyx aegyptia ) in Egypt to climate change: Distributional shifts and conservation needs

Climate change has the potential to significantly impact species distributions and patterns of biodiversity, resulting in shifts, contractions in range and even extinction. The Egyptian spiny-tailed lizard (Uromastyx aegyptia), classified as a vulnerable species, faces threats primarily due to habitat destruction driven by extensive ongoing human activities, limitations in its climatic preferences, the restricted nature of its habitat and its constrained dispersal capabilities. Species distribution models were used to evaluate the effects of climate change on the distribution of U. aegyptia in Egypt, aiming to map habitat suitability under both current and projected future conditions, specifically following the “middle path” scenario (SSP2 −4.5) for the years 2050 and 2070. The research sought to identify critical refuges and assess the effectiveness of the existing protected areas network. Suitable habitats are concentrated in northeastern Egypt, particularly the northern Eastern Desert and Sinai, but are highly fragmented. Future projections indicate substantial habitat redistribution, with gross habitat gains of 37.3% by 2050 and 35.6% by 2070, alongside habitat losses affecting 30.1% and 31.9% of the current suitable habitat, respectively. These comparable gains and losses suggest continued spatial turnover rather than a simple net expansion of suitable habitat. Existing protected areas currently encompass only 5.7% of suitable habitat, increasing to 6.7% under future projections, leaving most climatically suitable areas outside formal protection. Conservation efforts should therefore prioritise expanding protected area coverage in the northern Eastern Desert and Sinai, while maintaining habitat connectivity and dispersal corridors to enhance the species’ resilience to climate-driven range shifts.