ESG Rating Divergence and Corporate Financial Resilience Under the Dual Carbon Goal: A Signal Noise Perspective from China

In the turbulent volatility, uncertainty, complexity, and ambiguity (VUCA) era, financial resilience is a critical strategic asset for energy, mining, and infrastructure (EMI) companies seeking to withstand external shocks and support sustainable development under the dual carbon goal. Although environmental, social, and governance (ESG) performance is often viewed as a safety buffer, the growing divergence in observed ESG ratings may reduce the clarity of sustainability signals in capital markets, consistent with the signal-noise perspective. Drawing on signaling theory and information-asymmetry perspective, this study examines Chinese A-share EMI companies from 2015 to 2023 to investigate the impact of ESG rating divergence on firm-level financial resilience. Using a composite financial resilience index, a two-way fixed-effects model, and supplementary instrumental-variable and robustness checks, we find that ESG rating divergence is significantly and negatively associated with financial resilience. The mediation analysis provides evidence consistent with two potential transmission channels: tighter financing constraints and reduced analyst attention. Furthermore, the negative association is stronger among firms with lower information disclosure transparency, firms located in the eastern region, and firms audited by Big Four accounting firms. This study extends research on the economic consequences of ESG rating divergence and provides empirical evidence relevant to strengthening corporate financial resilience and long-term sustainable development under China’s dual carbon goal.