Beyond species niches: genotype-driven adaptation across climates in multi-country progeny trial networks

Abstract Niche-based models have been widely used to identify potential species for deployment in target environments; however, these approaches rely primarily on natural distribution data and may underestimate the full adaptive potential of commercial species. In contrast, large-scale tree breeding trial networks provide direct empirical evidence of performance, but their implementation is costly and time-consuming. This study aimed to evaluate the extent to which niche-based species suitability approaches align with empirical performance observed in multi-environment progeny trial networks and to assess whether genetic trial data can refine deployment recommendations beyond species-level climatic suitability. Using a multi-country network of E. urophylla progeny trials, we evaluated patterns of genetic performance and stability across Köppen (1936) classes and investigated whether genotype-by-environment interactions could be structured into operational environmental domains. Observed genetic performance was compared with conventional niche-based suitability classifications. Results revealed that productivity showed substantial variation across environments, with mean annual increment ranging from 1.4 to 34.1 m³ ha⁻¹ yr⁻¹. The highest estimated marginal mean (EMM) productivity was observed in humid tropical climates, particularly tropical rainforest (Af; 17.95 m³ ha⁻¹ yr⁻¹) and tropical monsoon (Am; 13.99 m³ ha⁻¹ yr⁻¹), whereas tropical savanna (Aw; 9.39 m³ ha⁻¹ yr⁻¹) and temperate dry-winter, warm-summer (Cwb; 8.94 m³ ha⁻¹ yr⁻¹) climates showed reductions of up to 50%. E. urophylla families from Aw climates (tropical savannah) performed better in more humid environments, indicating that adaptation is not strictly constrained by origin climate classes. The multi-trait model identified two broad breeding zones, tropical and subtropical, and revealed both broadly adapted and climate-specific families. Overall, niche-based approaches partially captured broad suitability patterns but showed limited agreement with observed productivity. In contrast, multi-environment genetic trials provided more accurate and operationally relevant insights, enabling the identification of superior genotypes and supporting more precise deployment strategies. These results highlight the importance of integrating climatic information with empirical genetic evaluation to improve decision-making in forest breeding and species deployment.