Smallholder Farmers’ Perceptions of Climate Change in the O.R. Tambo District Municipality: Challenges, Adaptation, and Resilience

Climate change poses major challenges for agriculture worldwide. Climate change threatens smallholder farmers, and little is known about how their perceptions align with climate records in O.R. Tambo. This study investigates how smallholder farmers in O.R. Tambo District perceive climate change and its impact on maize production. A mixed-methods research approach was used, combining quantitative surveys and qualitative insights. In the quantitative phase, 200 randomly selected farmers received closed-ended questionnaires focusing on demographic data and perceptions. To assess their perceptions of climate change, responses were compared to trends in historical temperature and precipitation data from 1990 to 2025. Descriptive statistics were used to gain insights into respondents’ perceptions. 86% of farmers acknowledged that flooding had occurred in the past 5 years, while 62.5% indicated a rise in average temperature. The meteorological data on average annual rainfall exhibited a small positive trend (τ = 0.2857) over the 36-year period, while average annual maximum temperature showed a slight declining trend (τ = −0.1619). Farmers with 18 years or more of residence in the region and significant farming experience were significantly more likely to correctly perceive climate fluctuations. This study concludes that while many farmers correctly perceive aspects of climate change, gaps and misinterpretations can negatively impact the adaptation strategies and resilience of smallholder farmers. Policy focus should be on climate education efforts that translate weather data into easily understandable information for farmers, enabling them to make production decisions.