Evolution of Wheat Production in Morocco: Historical Trends, Climatic Drivers, and Future Food Security Outlook (1990–2045)

Morocco’s wheat sector faces a widening imbalance between rising domestic demand and climate-sensitive domestic supply. This study assesses wheat production and food security in Morocco over 1990–2023 through regional and national analyses and scenario-based projections to 2035 and 2045. Regionally, wheat production declined between 2010 and 2020, except in Casablanca-Settat, where irrigation supported a 161% production increase despite drought. Nationally, production increased significantly (+75,880 t yr−1, p = 0.02), despite 2012–2023 being the warmest and driest decade on record. Harvested wheat area and fertilizer inputs (NPK) were retained as predictors of national production, together yielding an adjusted R2 of 0.52, with harvested area being the strongest statistical predictor (adjusted R2 = 0.53 when considered alone) compared with NPK (adjusted R2 = 0.12). Scenario-based projections show the wheat food security deficit increasing from 4.54 Mt in 2023 to 7.11 Mt by 2045. Theoretical calculations indicate that closing this deficit would require allocating an additional 19–27% of available cropland to wheat under irrigated conditions, compared with 45–63% under rainfed conditions. These findings underscore the potential role of irrigation and the need for region-specific agricultural strategies under a warming and drying climate. While the present analysis relies primarily on national-scale statistics and linear relationships, future work using finer-resolution data and complementary modeling approaches, together with explicit consideration of water-resource availability, could further refine the assessment of irrigation expansion and its feasibility.