LAB #3860 PROMISING: LEDGER BENCH: Apply filter: Min confirmations >= 6 — improves win rate from 32.5% to 38.2% (+5.7pp, — E8 Intelligence Research

IDEA: Adjustment made to the live model — verify against the backtests: Apply filter: Min confirmations >= 6 — improves win rate from 32.5% to 38.2% (+5.7pp, n=808) SAME-WINDOW EFFECT: Applying a minimum 6-confirmation filter would have rejected the AUDUSD SHORT (currently open, unconfirmed) and likely the NZDUSD LONG (open, unconfirmed) — both are speculative entries with no confirmed direction. Among the 8 closed trades, 3 were wins (GBPUSD SHORT, EURUSD LONG, GBPUSD SHORT) and 5 were losses; the filter would not have altered those outcomes since they all had ≥6 confirmations at entry. The net PnL delta in this window would be roughly zero — the filter only removes unconfirmed trades, and the two open/rejected trades are not yet resolved, so no measurable win-rate improvement appears here. The backtested +5.7pp gain likely comes from filtering out low-conviction entries across a larger sample, not from this specific 10-trade window. OVER-TIME PROJECTION: Over 3-6 months, this filte Author: Andrew Stewart Caldin, Independent Researcher, UK. Part of the E8 Intelligence Research series. Platform: e8intelligence.com

Authors

Publication Details

Journal
Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research)
Published
2026-10-08
DOI
https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.23229412
Primary Topic
Financial Markets and Investment Strategies
Type
preprint
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LAB #3860 PROMISING: LEDGER BENCH: Apply filter: Min confirmations >= 6 — improves win rate from 32.5% to 38.2% (+5.7pp, — E8 Intelligence Research

Andrew Stewart Caldin
Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research)
Financial Markets and Investment Strategies
preprint

LAB #3860 PROMISING: LEDGER BENCH: Apply filter: Min confirmations >= 6 — improves win rate from 32.5% to 38.2% (+5.7pp, — E8 Intelligence Research

Andrew Stewart Caldin
preprint en

Abstract

IDEA: Adjustment made to the live model — verify against the backtests: Apply filter: Min confirmations >= 6 — improves win rate from 32.5% to 38.2% (+5.7pp, n=808) SAME-WINDOW EFFECT: Applying a minimum 6-confirmation filter would have rejected the AUDUSD SHORT (currently open, unconfirmed) and likely the NZDUSD LONG (open, unconfirmed) — both are speculative entries with no confirmed direction. Among the 8 closed trades, 3 were wins (GBPUSD SHORT, EURUSD LONG, GBPUSD SHORT) and 5 were losses; the filter would not have altered those outcomes since they all had ≥6 confirmations at entry. The net PnL delta in this window would be roughly zero — the filter only removes unconfirmed trades, and the two open/rejected trades are not yet resolved, so no measurable win-rate improvement appears here. The backtested +5.7pp gain likely comes from filtering out low-conviction entries across a larger sample, not from this specific 10-trade window. OVER-TIME PROJECTION: Over 3-6 months, this filte Author: Andrew Stewart Caldin, Independent Researcher, UK. Part of the E8 Intelligence Research series. Platform: e8intelligence.com

Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research)
Financial Markets and Investment Strategies
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LAB #3860 PROMISING: LEDGER BENCH: Apply filter: Min confirmations >= 6 — improves win rate from 32.5% to 38.2% (+5.7pp, — E8 Intelligence Research — Andrew Stewart Caldin · Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research) (2026) | TGRS Research Map | TGRS