Uneven Upgrading of China’s Agricultural New-Quality Productive Forces: Regional Evolution and Spatially Contingent Hierarchical Shifts

Agricultural new-quality productive forces constitute an important driver of the transformation and upgrading of agricultural production systems, while their regional evolution influences the overall quality and spatial pattern of agricultural modernization. Based on panel data for 31 provincial-level regions in China from 2001 to 2023, this study constructs an evaluation index system grounded in the three-element theory of productive forces and employs the entropy weight method, the Dagum Gini coefficient and its decomposition, kernel density estimation, and traditional and spatial Markov chains to examine the development levels, regional disparities, distributional evolution, and spatial transition dynamics of agricultural new-quality productive forces. The findings reveal a continuous rise in agricultural new-quality productive forces in China, while the seven major regions have maintained a relatively stable development gradient, alongside distinct differences in the growth rates and regional advantage structures of the three constituent elements. Overall disparities exhibit a phased pattern of convergence followed by renewed divergence, with inter-regional disparities consistently constituting the primary source of overall inequality. The inter-provincial distribution has also shifted steadily toward higher levels while becoming increasingly dispersed, accompanied by a simultaneous extension of the upper tail and intensification of localized stratification. The dynamic evolution is characterized by strong state persistence and gradual upward mobility, with transitions occurring predominantly between adjacent levels; meanwhile, the association between neighborhood conditions and state transitions exhibits clear heterogeneity across development levels and sensitivity to alternative specifications. Theoretically, this study deepens the understanding of the unevenness, path dependence, and spatial conditionality underlying the regional evolution of agricultural new-quality productive forces. Practically, it provides empirical evidence for identifying region-specific constraints on upgrading and optimizing pathways for regional coordination.