Graduate employability under technological upgrading: employer perspectives on skills, recruitment and higher education–industry alignment in China

Purpose This study examines how employers in China evaluate graduate employability under technological upgrading, focusing on skill requirements, recruitment screening, talent demand and higher education–industry alignment. Design/methodology/approach Drawing on 170 employer responses, the study combines comparative, regression and cluster analyses with robustness checks, including equivalence testing using the Two One-Sided Tests (TOST) and multiple-testing correction. Findings Employer reports indicate differentiated adjustment: industry-leading firms more often report labour-demand expansion, whereas industry-average and lower-tech firms report contraction or stagnation. Technical and non-technical roles converge on a practically equivalent employability core. Future demand follows a hybrid screening logic, combining stronger demand for innovation-oriented, composite and cross-domain profiles with intensified field-of-study matching. Higher education is viewed as partly aligned, particularly in practice and theory–practice integration. Reported graduate deficiencies do not systematically correspond to lower higher education evaluations, indicating partial decoupling between perceived skill gaps and institutional evaluations. Originality/value This study makes three contributions. First, TOST equivalence testing establishes cross-role convergence in core employability competencies, extending evidence on social and cognitive skills. Second, the coexistence of broader competence demands and stronger field-of-study matching identifies a hybrid screening logic rather than a linear shift from disciplinary credentials to generic competencies. Third, decoupling between reported graduate deficiencies and corresponding higher education evaluations shows that perceived mismatch is not direct evidence of deficiencies in higher education provision. These findings are situated within China's policy-intensive environment of industrial upgrading and industry–education integration.