EV charging meets multimodal policy: modal shift and commuter segmentation in a university city

Abstract In the context of urban areas contending with significant traffic congestion and stringent climate objectives, the rapid expansion of electric vehicle (EV) charging infrastructure is rarely assessed as a component of comprehensive modal-shift strategies. This study evaluates the modal shift potential of EV charging deployment alongside broader sustainable travel policies among private car commuters in Greater Cambridge, a UK university city, and investigates how policy acceptance varies across commuter segments. Utilising a stated preference (SP) survey, we examine 12 interventions spanning EV charger placement, park-and-ride (P&R) improvement, carpooling incentives, micromobility provision and parking/congestion charges. Scenario analysis indicates that EV charging measures show the smallest modal shifts, whereas cheaper and more frequent P&R bus services show the greatest potential to reduce morning-peak car trips, and carpooling interventions show large potential to reduce vehicle miles travelled. Latent class analysis (LCA) identifies three commuter segments, Traditional Commuters, Flexible Moderates and Sustainable Shifters, each with distinct policy acceptance profiles and sociodemographic characteristics. Building on these findings, we propose integrated, segment-targeted policy packages phased according to stages of EV adoption. The findings offer empirically grounded guidance for integrating EV charging infrastructure within broader multimodal policy frameworks in university cities and comparable contexts.