Choosing the Stage: The Strategic Role of Disclosure Venues in Guidance Revisions

ABSTRACT When managers revise earnings guidance between earnings announcements, they choose not only what to disclose but also where to disclose—in a standalone release, a guidance call, an investor conference, or an analyst/investor (A/I) day. These venues differ in audience, format, and visibility, raising the question of whether venue choice is a strategic communication decision. In a large sample of unbundled revisions, we find that managers use calls for relatively large negative revisions and when litigation risk is higher and that they use conferences and A/I days for smaller revisions and when analyst disagreement is greater. Textual analysis reveals that calls feature cautious, litigious language for both upward and downward revisions, whereas conference and A/I day communications remain optimistic. In line with these framing differences, calls are associated with amplified reaction to negative news and are followed by more favorable earnings surprises, suggestive of effective expectation management, whereas conferences and A/I days are associated with muted reactions and reduced analyst dispersion and are followed by less favorable surprises. Our findings suggest that venue choice is a dimension of disclosure strategy for managers and an informative signal for investors.