The Circuitous Routes to Permanence: Understanding International Students’ Permit Transition Pathways to Permanent Residency in Canada

As countries adopt a “two-step” immigrant selection process, understanding how temporary residents granted study or work permit(s) transition to permanent residency (PR) is crucial. Using linked administrative records and sequence and cluster analysis, we identify five permit transition pathways to PR among international students that vary by timing, duration, and permit sequence. Our multinomial logistic regression analysis highlights pathway differences across study level, arrival cohort, and province. Students pursuing a master's degree or non-university diploma were more likely to obtain off-campus work permit(s) during studies and a post-study work permit before PR. Post-2008 cohorts were also more likely to follow this pathway. Manitoba, Saskatchewan, and Quebec stood out for transitions to PR without a post-study work permit. This study reveals complex, non-linear transitions to PR, emphasizing the role of evolving immigration policies in shaping diverse pathways. Insights can inform discussions on temporary status transitions and differential access to PR.