Mid-IR Water-Vapor Seeing: Implications for ELT/METIS High-Contrast Imaging from VLTI Data

Abstract Direct imaging and characterization of rocky exoplanets remains one of the central challenges in exoplanetary science. The mid-infrared (mid-IR) offers a favorable high-contrast imaging (HCI) regime, as the planet-star contrast is more moderate than at shorter wavelengths. However, mid-IR observations with extremely large ground-based telescopes (ELTs) are strongly affected by spatio-temporal fluctuations in atmospheric water vapor (WV), which introduce chromatic wavefront errors that are largely invisible to adaptive optics systems operating at shorter wavelengths. This poses a significant challenge for mid-IR HCI instruments such as METIS, which aims to detect thermal emission from rocky exoplanets in the N-band (8-13 μm). To quantify WV-induced wavefront errors, we analyze K-band fringe-tracker data from the GRAVITY instrument at the VLTI and derive the optical path difference between group-delay and phase-delay measurements. This difference provides a direct measure of the differential WV column density (Σ) above the telescopes. We examine the dependence of the RMS differential WV column density (σΣ) on precipitable water vapor (PWV), airmass, seeing, and wind speed across multiple VLTI configurations. Among these parameters, PWV shows the strongest correlation with σΣ. We further explore the influence of the vertical PWV distribution on this relationship. Next, we use power-spectral-density analysis to quantify how increasing PWV modulates Σ variability. The wavefront error associated with this phenomenon on ELT scale is approximately 15 nm RMS in the L-band and 175 nm RMS in the N-band, relative to the K-band. These results provide a quantitative framework for assessing and mitigating atmospheric WV effects in next-generation mid-IR HCI instruments.