Tariff Reimposition and Export Performance Within Regional Trade Agreements: Implications for Asia‐Pacific Economies

ABSTRACT This paper examines how the reimposition of tariffs—policies intended to restrict imports—feeds back into the tariff‐imposing country's own export performance. Focusing on Asia‐Pacific economies, we analyse whether these export‐reducing effects are amplified within regional trade agreements (RTAs) and global value chains (GVCs), and whether transregional cooperation through APEC mitigates or intensifies such disruptions. Using a structural gravity framework with domestic trade flows and rich fixed effects, we estimate the impact of tariff increases on bilateral exports from 1995 to 2020, distinguishing between traditional and GVC exports. Tariff reimposition significantly reduces exports, with substantially larger declines for shipments to RTA partners. These effects are particularly pronounced for GVC exports, reflecting cumulative cost escalation and coordination frictions in fragmented production networks. APEC membership partially cushions the direct export‐reducing effects of tariffs. However, this mitigating role disappears when partners are simultaneously linked through RTAs, as exports to such highly integrated partners experience additional and pronounced declines. Overall, the findings show that tariff reimposition within preferential trade frameworks generates disproportionately large export disruptions, especially in GVC‐intensive relationships, underscoring the importance of policy stability in sustaining regional production networks.