The growing burden of myopia in Europe: evidence from population-based cohorts

Abstract Myopia is a childhood-onset condition driven by excessive axial ocular elongation, associated with increased risk of sight-threatening complications and irreversible visual impairment. Despite rising global prevalence, epidemiological data on long-term trends in Europe remain limited. This study examines temporal trends in myopia prevalence and axial length (AL) across European adult birth cohorts. We conducted a comparative birth-cohort analysis using harmonised data from 28 population-based studies (n = 81,828) across nine countries participating in the European Eye Epidemiology (E3) Consortium. Myopia prevalence (overall, by severity, and sex) were estimated using individual participant data random-effects meta-analysis. AL distributions were assessed by estimating percentiles across birth cohorts. Myopia prevalence more than tripled across 20th-century birth cohorts, rising from 18.0% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 15.2%, 21.3%) in the 1900s to 61.4% (95% CI: 55.5%, 66.9%) in the 1990s (p < 0.001), with increased prevalence across all severity levels. Standardised to the 2024 European population, myopia prevalence was estimated at 42.7% (95% CI: 40.2%, 45.1%). Myopia prevalence was similar between males and females overall. AL was longer in successive decades (1920–1970) across all population centiles (p < 0.001), indicating a population-wide shift. Myopia prevalence and AL have increased markedly across European birth cohorts throughout the twentieth century, affecting all severity levels and both sexes. These findings underscore the importance of preventive strategies targeting modifiable environmental risk factors, alongside continued evaluation of interventions intended to slow myopia progression, as continued increases may strain healthcare systems and society.

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Publication Details

Journal
European Journal of Epidemiology
Published
2026-10-08
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1007/s10654-026-01435-w
Primary Topic
Ophthalmology and Visual Impairment Studies
Type
article
Field-Weighted Citation Impact
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article

The growing burden of myopia in Europe: evidence from population-based cohorts

Katie M Williams, Geir Bertelsen, Carsten Grohmann, Vincent Daïen et al.
European Journal of Epidemiology
Ophthalmology and Visual Impairment Studies
article

The growing burden of myopia in Europe: evidence from population-based cohorts

Katie M Williams, Geir Bertelsen, Carsten Grohmann, Vincent Daïen, Sirpa Loukovaara, Christina Keskini, Julian Alexander Mamo, Frank Gerhard Holz, Mukharram Mukhtaramovich Bikbov, Tos T. J. M. Berendschot, Toralf Kirsten, Usha Chakravarthy, Sander C. M. Kneepkens, Francis Carbonaro, Cláudia Farinha, Caroline C. W. Klaver, Johanna Liinamaa, Sascha Fauser, Amber Tiemens, Victor A. de Vries, Martynas Špečkauskas, Cécile Delcourt, Alexander Karl-Georg Schuster, Kelsey V. Stuart, Franziska Georgia Rauscher, Jugnoo Sangeeta Rahi, Jan Roelof Polling, David Agius, Louis Arnould, Matthias Marten Mauschitz, Anthony P. Khawaja, Sara W. Quist, Dimitrios A. Giannoulis, Stephen Beatty, Olli T. Raitakari, Ville O. Saarela, A J Lotery, Mohsen Ghanbari, Rebecca Broe, Isabelle Carrière, Monique M.B. Breteler, Gyulli M. Kazakbaeva, Harju Mika, Robert Patrick Finger, Audrey Cougnard‐Grégoire, Karen A. Ritchie, Johannes Birtel, Jean‐François Korobelnik, Rita Coimbra, Jost Bruno Jonas, Mélanie Le Goff, Stefano Piermarocchi, Christian Gieger, Konrad Oexle, Vassiliki Bountziouka, Eric H. Souied, Caroline Brandl, Ansgar Beuse, Kun Shi‐van Wielink, Christopher Joseph Hammond, Meitinger Thomas, Maria Luz Cachulo, Peter Wolfrum, Catherine Creuzot Garcher, José Cunha-Vaz, A. Bron, CAREL B. HOYNG, Elena Prokofyeva, Anna Maria Voigt, Мухаррам Мухтарамович Бикбов, Simon Christoph König, Camiel J. F. Boon, Iris Heid, Rufino Silva, B Merle, Yara Lechanteur, Dirk J. van Hemert, Astrid Fletcher, Jari Haukka, Ruth Hogg, Freekje van Asten, Jose-Alain Sahel, Paul Foster, Birte Isabelle, Nomdo Jansonius, Norbert Pfeiffer, Hans-Werner Hense, Tunde Peto, Kay-Tee Khaw, Franca Hartgers, Sergio Leal, Algirdas Tamošiūnas, Annemarie Johanna Colijn, Anneke I. den Hollander, Terho Lehtimäki, Martin Bobak, Fotis Topouzis, Sena T. Lemma
article en

Abstract

Abstract Myopia is a childhood-onset condition driven by excessive axial ocular elongation, associated with increased risk of sight-threatening complications and irreversible visual impairment. Despite rising global prevalence, epidemiological data on long-term trends in Europe remain limited. This study examines temporal trends in myopia prevalence and axial length (AL) across European adult birth cohorts. We conducted a comparative birth-cohort analysis using harmonised data from 28 population-based studies (n = 81,828) across nine countries participating in the European Eye Epidemiology (E3) Consortium. Myopia prevalence (overall, by severity, and sex) were estimated using individual participant data random-effects meta-analysis. AL distributions were assessed by estimating percentiles across birth cohorts. Myopia prevalence more than tripled across 20th-century birth cohorts, rising from 18.0% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 15.2%, 21.3%) in the 1900s to 61.4% (95% CI: 55.5%, 66.9%) in the 1990s (p < 0.001), with increased prevalence across all severity levels. Standardised to the 2024 European population, myopia prevalence was estimated at 42.7% (95% CI: 40.2%, 45.1%). Myopia prevalence was similar between males and females overall. AL was longer in successive decades (1920–1970) across all population centiles (p < 0.001), indicating a population-wide shift. Myopia prevalence and AL have increased markedly across European birth cohorts throughout the twentieth century, affecting all severity levels and both sexes. These findings underscore the importance of preventive strategies targeting modifiable environmental risk factors, alongside continued evaluation of interventions intended to slow myopia progression, as continued increases may strain healthcare systems and society.

European Journal of Epidemiology
Openalex Percentile: Top 12%
Ophthalmology and Visual Impairment Studies
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